The 2026 fixed-rate cliff, tracked
Last reviewed: 29 June 2026
The 2026 fixed-rate cliff is the wave of around 1.8 million UK fixed-rate mortgages ending this year, many of them taken at low rates and now rolling onto higher ones. With the Bank of England base rate at 3.75% and most borrowers facing either a product transfer or a remortgage, the central risk is payment shock: a step up in monthly cost. Planning a new deal three to six months ahead is the main defence.
The verified numbers
- Around 1.8 million fixed-rate mortgage deals are scheduled to end in 2026[UK Finance].
- The Bank of England base rate is 3.75%[Bank of England], which feeds into tracker and variable products and the swap rates behind fixes.
- Internal product transfers run at roughly £261bn a year against about £77bn of external remortgaging[UK Finance], so most maturing borrowers stay with their lender.
- Total outstanding UK mortgage balances are around £1.746 trillion[UK Finance], the backdrop to the whole maturity wave.
Scale of the wave (illustrative)
We do not have a verified published month-by-month split of the 1.8 million figure. To convey the scale only, the table below divides the verified annual total evenly across the year. These are illustrative figures to show magnitude, not a published monthly or quarterly count.
| Period (2026) | Illustrative even-spread share |
|---|---|
| Per quarter (average) | about 450,000 deals |
| Per month (average) | about 150,000 deals |
| Full year (verified total) | around 1,800,000 deals |
Only the full-year total is a published figure (UK Finance). The per-quarter and per-month rows are an even-spread illustration to show scale, not actual monthly data.
What it means for you
If your fix was below today's rates, coming off it usually means a higher payment. The size of the jump depends on your balance, your remaining term and the rate you move to. Rather than rely on averages, work out your own figure with the payment-shock calculator, then decide how to act using should you switch or stay.
Common questions
What is the fixed-rate cliff?
It is the wave of fixed-rate mortgages reaching the end of their deal in a concentrated period. Because many borrowers fixed at low rates a few years ago, a large number now roll off onto today's higher rates at once, which can mean a noticeable jump in monthly payments.
How many mortgages end in 2026?
Around 1.8 million fixed-rate deals are scheduled to end in 2026, according to UK Finance. That is why 2026 is described as a cliff: the volume of households facing a remortgage or product-transfer decision is unusually high.
Will my payments definitely go up?
Not always, but often. If your old fixed rate was below today's rates, your new payment is likely higher. How much depends on your balance, remaining term and the new rate. The payment-shock calculator gives you a personal figure rather than a headline.
What can I do about it?
Plan ahead. Arrange a new deal three to six months before your fix ends so you skip the standard variable rate, compare staying with your lender against remortgaging, and get the timing right. The remortgage section walks through each option.
Founder, MortgageExplained, MortgageExplained
Adam spent nearly a decade as a mortgage adviser at Just Mortgages, with further experience in commercial finance. He is CeMAP and CF qualified. He built MortgageExplained to do one thing well: explain mortgages in plain English, then introduce you to a regulated broker when you are ready. Every page is written and reviewed by Adam.
Last reviewed: 29 June 2026